Every casino game comes with a win probability. That is, the likelihood that a player will win, versus the likelihood that they will lose (i.e. house wins). Blackjack is considered an exceptional casino game for two reasons. First, it comes with one of the highest “return to player” (RTP) percentages of any other game. Second, players can make decisions that ultimately impact the height of that return.
That doesn’t mean you should dive blindly into any blackjack game. Some have higher RTPs than others. And if you don’t play the game correctly, making all of the proper decisions along the way, you won’t achieve the highest possible RTP anyway.
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The intent of this page is to teach you a few simple but critical lessons about blackjack RTP, and why it matters. We’ll start with a better explanation of what RTP is, and how it’s calculated.
What is Blackjack RTP (Return to Player)?
The return to player, or RTP, is a percentage-based calculation of how much a casino game will pay out to players in the long-term (i.e. over an extensive amount of game play). In general, the rules of any casino games determine its RTP. However, in some games, the RTP isn’t static; that is to say it can be alter with the player’s decisions. Blackjack is one of them. I’ll explain why in a moment. First, let’s delve deeper into the minutiae of RTP.
As I said, RTP is represented by a percentage. If a casino game’s RTP percentage is 80%, that means players can expect to win back 80% of all their wagers. A more appropriate way to look at this – players will lose 20% of their bets. Whatever the RTP percentage is, you can subtract it from a complete 100% to get the amount the casino will win (a.k.a. house edge).
I mentioned blackjack RTPs being unique for two reasons. The first reason was because they are so inherently high. The higher the RTP, the more you can expect to win back. Most blackjack games carry an RTP of 99% or more. Some online games have been known to reach as high as 99.82%. That means the player is only expecting to lose 0.18% of their bets. Just know that…
Anything Under 100% is a Loss
99.82% sounds really high, but please note that a 99.82% return rate is not a win, but rather a 0.18% loss. In order to get a winning (profitable) RTP, the rate would have to be higher than 100%. No casino game in modern times, online or on land, has a natural RTP of 100%+. To achieve this, you would have to successfully employ blackjack card counting, and even that is getting much harder to do these days, as we’ll discuss in more detail below. Also, refresh yourself here on what not do in blackjack.
RTP is a Theoretical Concept
Also please understand that RTP is a theoretical concept. Because it is based entirely on scientific probabilities (the probability of drawing any individual card from a specific pool of cards), that theoretical RTP will come to fruition, but only in the long-term. By long-term, we’re talking about hundreds if not thousands of hours of game play.
Short-term results are rarely indicative of the actual RTP. You may play 100 hands and win or lose more, perhaps even far more, than the RTP implies. This is what we call short-term variance; the inevitable swings of gambling. You win some, you lose some, so to speak – even the ones you theoretically (probably) should have won, you may lose, and vice versa. You can get lucky and win a hand with 12, just as you can get unlucky and lose with 20.
Since there is no natural RTP of 100% or more, the fact is, if RTP were demonstrable in the short-term, there would be no winners at all.
Why the RTP in Blackjack Isn’t Static
Now to cover the second unique factor in blackjack RTP – its instability. Unlike many games, like slot machines, keno, roulette, big wheel, and others, the RTP in blackjack can change. This is simply because the player is capable of making decisions. A good decision sustains the game’s maximum RTP, while a bad decision decreases it.
Making good decisions has nothing to do with gut feelings, or trusting your intuition. They are based solely on the use of basic strategy. A basic strategy (a.k.a. perfect strategy; they mean the same thing) will determine the best possible decision you can make, based on the probability of that decision resulting in a win. Even if the probability is only 25%, if it’s the highest-probability decision you can make based on the current conditions (your hand versus the dealer’s up-card), it’s the right decision.
Can good decisions increase blackjack RTP?
Yes and no… As far as basic strategy goes, no. The RTP of the game is calculated by assuming the player will make all good (correct, perfect) decisions. The RTP is only impacted (negatively) if basic strategy is not followed.
The only way to increase the RTP above its theorized height is to employ further strategies; more than what basic strategy calls for. This would require counting cards and adjusting bet sizes based on the current count. Even this is mostly (but not entirely) ineffective, due to casinos reshuffling before the deck/shoe reaches 50% depth. If you’re serious about achieving a winning RTP in blackjack, card counting is still a subject worth exploring.
Living On the Edge: Evaluating the impact of all common (and some uncommon) house rules on blackjack RTP.
On the surface, most blackjack games look the same. So how is it so few of them offer the same theoretical return to player, or RTP? The answer is simple. Every single rule invoked by the house (the casino) changes the RTP in some way. It might go up a hundredth of a percentile, or plummet by a full percent. Each rule impacts the game in its own way.
Casinos (or rather, the makers of the games they supply) are well aware of this effect. They’ve spent years trying to find ways to give players the most entertaining experience – the most player-friendly rules – without denying the casinos their guaranteed profit. They’ve become so good at it, there are some rules most players don’t even know exist, even when they’re playing the games that enforce them.
Impact of House Rules on Blackjack RTP
There are more than three dozen rules that can be invoked by a casino when setting up a blackjack table. They include things like single, double or four+ deck games; dealer hits or stands on soft 17; blackjack pays 3 to 2, 6 to 5, 7 to 5, or worse, 1 to 1.
Generally speaking, the fewer decks in play, the higher the RTP will be. The dealer standing on soft 17 is better for the player than when he hits – by a not-so-negligible 0.22%, in fact. And obviously, the higher the payout for a natural blackjack, the better.
In the chart below, we’ll detail exactly how each blackjack house rule impacts the player’s long terms odds. With this information, you should be able to see just how variant games creators combine different rule sets to ensure the house always has the advantage, no matter how big or small it may be.
Relationship Between RTP and House Edge
Before a go on – a quick word about RTP versus house edge. The RTP of a game is how much a player can expect to win back from his total bets over the long term. The house edge is how much the casino expects to win from players over the long term. They are, quite literally, the opposite of one another. When you combine them, you should get exactly 100%.
For example, a house edge of 0.46% is equivalent to an RTP of 99.54%. (99.54 + 0.46 = 100). The strategic blackjack player’s goal is to find a blackjack game with the highest RTP and, therefore, the lowest house edge.
Common Rules & Their Effect on RTP
The following chart is listed in order of positive to negative, or greatest to least, with greatest being the most player-friendly rules, and least being the worst rules for players. The rules with a positive integer (+) benefit the player, while those with a negative integer (-) benefit the house.
| Positive Blackjack Rules | +RTP Impact |
| Blackjack Pays 2 to 1 | +2.27% |
| 5-Card Charlie | +1.46% |
| Suited Blackjack Pays 2 to 1 | +0.57% |
| Single Deck Game | +0.48% |
| Early Surrender against Dealer Ace | +0.39% |
| Player Wins Blackjack Ties, Pays 3 to 2 | +0.32% |
| 6-Card Charlie, Pays 3 to 2 | +0.31% |
| 5+ Card 21, Pays 2 to 1 | +0.24% |
| Early Surrender against 10 | +0.24% |
| Double Down on Any Total | +0.23% |
| Ace+10 after Split is Natural Blackjack | +0.19% |
| Double Deck Game | +0.19% |
| Draw to Split Aces | +0.19% |
| 6-Card Charlie, Pays 1 to 1 | +0.16% |
| Double Down after Split | +0.15% |
| Double Down Rescue | +0.10% |
| Late Surrender | +0.08% |
| Resplit Aces | +0.08% |
| Late Surrender against 10 | +0.07% |
| Four Deck Game | +0.06% |
| Five Deck Game | +0.03% |
| Six Deck Game | +0.02% |
| Negative Blackjack Rules | -RTP Impact |
| Split up to 2x | -0.01% |
| Double Down on 9, 10, 11 only | -0.09% |
| Split 1x only | -0.10% |
| Dealer Doesn’t Peek for Blackjack | -0.11% |
| No Double After Split | -0.14% |
| No Splitting Aces | -0.18% |
| Double Down on 10, 11 only | -0.18% |
| Dealer Hits Soft 17 | -0.22% |
| Blackjack Pays 7 to 5 | -0.45% |
| No Splitting Allowed | -0.57% |
| Blackjack Pays 6 to 5 | -1.39% |
| No Doubling Allowed | -1.48% |
| Blackjack Pays 1 to 1 | -2.27% |
| Dealer 22 Pushes except against Blackjack | -6.91% |
Always Play Blackjack with the Highest RTP
If you’ve been reading along up until now, I shouldn’t have to explain the reasoning behind this. RTP determines the amount of money you can expect to win back (in the long-term). Because that RTP is always less than 100%, you can never expect to win back all of your bets, or make a profit (in the long term). So, if you’re all-but destined to lose money playing blackjack, it only makes sense to choose a game in which you’ll lose the least amount of money. Hence, you should only play the highest RTP games available.
Are You Not Entertained?
I certainly don’t mean to sound cynical, but we have to be realistic about this. Yes, you can win money playing blackjack. People do it all the time – especially in the short term. But you cannot expect to win. What you can expect is to have a good time. Gambling, after all, is a form of entertainment. If you’re not entertained, why play?
Think of it this way. Almost every form of entertainment costs money. Playing the highest RTP blackjack games, while employing basic strategy, is kind of like getting a good discount rate on your entertainment, but with a slight chance of getting back more money than you paid for it. That’s not a bad deal at all.
Highest RTP Blackjack Games that can be Played for Bitcoin
If you’re into the crypto coin movement, you’ll be glad to know there are a lot of crypto casinos offering high RTP blackjack games to Canadian players. I would encourage you to shop around, do your research, and see what’s out there.
The best we’ve found in our considerable experience is Blackjack Bonus by 1×2 Gaming. It comes with an impressive RTP of 99.82%, with basic strategy applied. See our perfect strategy for Blackjack Bonus for more info on how and where to play it (upcoming).
Did you Know ? Side-Bets Can Affect RTP Drastically.
Blackjack RTP can vary significantly based on the specific rules and side bets offered. For example, a single rule change like the dealer hitting on soft 17 instead of standing can increase the house edge by about 0.2%.
You change the game, you change the RTP, simple as that.
Also RTPs don’t compound, generally the more side-bets you add, the worst it gets. That’s because blackjack already has one of the highest RTPs on the casino floor (especially if you count cards). Adding side-bets will slowly erode this metric.
In general, tacking on side-bets would increase volatility instead of overall RTP. So if that’s your thing, then it’s a different matter.
Just be aware that some blackjack side bets have extremely poor RTPs for the player. The “Super Sevens” side bet, which pays out based on how many 7s the player is dealt, has an abysmal RTP.
Savvy players need to be aware of how specific rules can affect RTP. A small rule or side bet that seems innocuous can actually make a huge difference to your bottom line.
We will be adding a complete section on Canadian blackjack side bets very soon on eCheckCasinos.ca.
More information
What is the average RTP for blackjack?
When played with optimal strategy, the RTP for blackjack generally falls between 98% and 99.5%, which translates to a house edge of 0.5% to 2%. However, the exact RTP can vary based on the specific rules and side bets offered.
How do rule variations affect blackjack RTP?
Small changes in blackjack rules can have a significant impact on the RTP. For example, a single rule change like the dealer hitting on soft 17 instead of standing can increase the house edge by about 0.2%.
Do side bets in blackjack have the same RTP as the main game?
No, side bets in blackjack typically have a much lower RTP compared to the main game. While the main game has an RTP around 99%, most side bets have an RTP of 90% or less, with some having an even lower RTP.
How does the number of decks used affect blackjack RTP?
The number of decks used can impact the RTP of both the main game and side bets in blackjack. For example, the house edge can increase by 0.02% for each additional deck used in the main game, and the RTP of the 21+3 side bet varies based on the number of decks used.
What is the highest possible RTP in blackjack?
The highest possible RTP in blackjack is generally around 99.5% when played with optimal strategy and favorable rules.
